Russia’s missile launcher and warhead movements have come under focus, with reports of an “nuclear train” heading to the Ukraine border and missiles transported through Moscow, though concerns appeared to be largely unfounded.

But Russia’s Northern territories and borders are also being closely watched, and recent appearance of military aircraft in the area, once again, fueled fearful speculation.

The Claim

Media outlets have reported on Wednesday that Russia had increased the number of strategic bombers close to its border with NATO-member state Norway.

Norwegian publication Faktisk reported that satellite imagery showed 11 Tupolev aircraft at the Russian airbase Olenya on the Kola peninsula, about 60 miles south of the city of Murmansk.

It comes amid concern in the West over whether Vladimir Putin might resort to nuclear weapons to wrest back the initiative in his faltering invasion of Ukraine, in which his troops have retreated and suffered significant losses.

The Facts

Satellite images from the company Planet Labs from October 7 shows seven Tu-160 strategic bombers and four Tu-95 aircraft at Russia’s Olenya airbase on the Kola Peninsula, Faktisk reported.

The site’s proximity to NATO founding member Norway sparked alarm in some media outlets, such as British tabloid The Sun, whose headline said on Friday, “Putin deploys 11 nuclear bombers just 20 miles from Nato border as Russia warns of apocalyptic World War 3.”

The airbase is a major Russian Navy reconnaissance hub and a MiG-31K from the site carried out the launch of the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal nuclear-capable ballistic missile in the Arctic in 2019, according to state news agency Tass.

The Tu-160 bombers, which can carry cruise missiles and strategic nuclear weapons, have been active in Putin’s invasion, during which his Air Force has been unable to gain the upper hand. As of 2022, the Tu-160 was the largest and heaviest combat aircraft and the fastest bomber in use. The Tupolev Tu-85s are a four-engine turboprop-powered strategic bomber and missile platform.

Faktisk reported that satellite image from October 9 showed one of the Tu-160 bombers ready to take off on the runway. Placing the bombers at the site is unusual because they are typically located at Engels Air Base, about 450 miles south-east of Moscow.

Last month, The Jerusalem Post reported that Israeli intelligence firm ImageSat International (ISI) had detected an “irregular presence” of Russian TU-160 and TU-95 strategic bombers at the airbase.

There were no strategic bombers present at the airbase on August 12, but satellite imagery detected four TU-160s on August 21 and three TU-95s on September 25.

However, as Faktisk noted, the deployment of the bombers on the Kola Peninsula is not in itself surprising, as it coincides with the Russian military officials sending out warnings about extensive firing exercises in the Barents Sea this week.

Associate professor at the Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy, Lars Peder Haga told Newsweek he believed there were three likely reasons for the deployment.

“It could be part of an exercise, possibly the yearly exercise ‘Grom’” he said, referring to the drills in late October in which Russia’s nuclear-capable bombers, submarines and missiles are put to test. Haga said this is “as much about nuclear signaling as it is an exercise to build and test skills and capabilities.

“It may be in order to relieve the main base at Engels, either for necessary repairs and maintenance or just to ease the workload on support personnel and structures.

“Finally, and I assess that to be the least likely reason, they may be there to load missiles for attacks against Ukraine. That rests on an assumption that there are conventional air launched cruise missiles for these aircraft stored at Olenya, something I do not know for a fact.”

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

The Ruling

Needs Context.

Satellite imagery does show the presence of seven Tu-160 strategic bombers and four Tu-95 aircraft at the Olenya air base on the Kola peninsula, which appear to have been moved there from Engels Air Base, 450 miles southeast of Moscow, where they were usually based.

However, the aircraft have been seen there before, and the fact of their presence on its own does not signal anything out of the ordinary or provide a serious cause for concern.

Their status as strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads has raised alarm among some media outlets. But analysts have suggested that this could be linked to the previously announced military exercises in the Barents Sea, or perhaps a sign of more nuclear posturing in Putin’s confrontation with the West over Ukraine.

FACT CHECK BY NEWSWEEK