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Week 7 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
Note: “Pick Popularity” numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers, as well as a team’s odds to win, can shift over the course of the week, so make sure to check our NFL survivor picks product for all the latest data plus customized pick advice for your pool.
BIG NEWS: Before we get to the picks, we’re happy to announce that we just published our first-ever e-book, Survivor Pool Strategy: What It Takes To Win. It explains all the key elements of survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool-winning entries. It’s free right now, so download your copy here.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans
Pick Popularity: 48% (Most popular survivor pick)Point Spread: -17.5
Do you think J.J. Watt is happy to be out of Houston? The Cardinals play his former team and are favored by more than 17 points with win odds over 90 percent in this one. Arizona has decent future value, and its popularity does limit its expected value to some extent this week. However, the drop-off in value from the Cardinals, Rams, Bucs to the next tier is huge.
Using Arizona this week means you can continue to save the Rams and Bucs, who have even more weeks in the future where they project to be big favorites at low popularity.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 7 Pick ’em pool advice
Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Football Team
Pick Popularity: 17%Point Spread: -9.0
In a normal week, Green Bay would be a solid play. This isn’t a normal week. You typically don’t want to go heavy on the second-most popular pick when it isn’t one of the bigger favorites of the week. The Packers’ upside is limited because the favorites above them have both higher win odds, and two of them have low popularity.
If you’re in a pool that will eventually require you to pick a lot of teams, using the Packers might make some sense, as they would allow you to save the other top options for later in the season.
WEEK 7 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Pick Popularity: 13%Point Spread: -7.5
Just like Green Bay, New England would be a solid play in a typical week. However, the Pats have lower expected value this week because the favorites are more likely to win.
The case for the Patriots comes down entirely to future value savings in large pools expected to go the distance. You would trade risk this week to use a team that projects to have only one other potential spot, in Week 17 against Jacksonville, where it is useful in survivor pools.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Pick Popularity: 11%Point Spread: -15.0
Over half of the entries in a typical pool have already used the Rams, which limits how many can use them now. They are a high-value pick if you still have them available and can afford to spend them in the Jared Goff/Matthew Stafford Trading Places Bowl.
However, they have other weeks in the future where they could also be valuable. If you are a subscriber, you could look at the Season View of our Data Grid and see who else we project to be useful in, say, Week 13, when the Rams play the Jaguars at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears
Pick Popularity: 4%Point Spread: -13.0
What we just said about the Rams also applies to Tampa Bay. More than half of a typical pool has already used the Bucs, and they are a high-value play.
They are the second-most valuable team in survivor, so using them now is acceptable, but being able to hold them for the future will also continue to provide value and versatility.
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We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!
