The Russia-Ukraine war, launched by President Vladimir Putin in late February, defined much of 2022’s international affairs as much of the West condemned the invasion for lacking justification, violating contemporary international norms and for human rights abuses allegedly committed by Russian soldiers.
Russia, despite the vast size of its military, has struggled to achieve substantial goals in Ukraine after more than 10 months of fighting. The war exposed weaknesses among Putin’s troops, including an apparent inability to maintain motivated, well-trained soldiers. This has allowed Ukraine in recent months to retake thousands of square miles of formerly occupied territory.
Heading into 2023, Hodges, who formerly served as the commanding general of the United States Army Europe, said in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) he believes Ukraine will continue to score victories, potentially even defeating Russia, adding that Ukraine currently has the “momentum.”
“It’s too early to plan a victory parade in Kyiv but all the momentum is with Ukraine now and there is no doubt in my mind that they will win this war, probably in 2023,” Hodges said.
Hodges explained that while the winter may see Ukraine’s progress slow—as they deal with renewed Russian strikes against civilian infrastructure—he believes Ukraine’s military is better poised to recover from a difficult winter due to a steady supply of winter equipment from its Western allies.
Ukraine may even retake control of Crimea—a region Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014—in 2023, Hodges said. Kyiv will also likely begin reconstruction in areas damaged during the conflict near the Azov sea, he said.
“When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapidly improving logistical situation for Ukraine, I see no other outcome but a Russian defeat,” he told the BBC.
Putin Faces Pressure as War Stagnates
In recent months, as Moscow’s war in Ukraine flounders and Western sanctions continue hitting its economy, Putin has faced increased pressure to deliver a victory, with some Russian officials and media personalities now admitting the war is stagnating.
Polling released earlier in December indicated that more Russians are ready for Putin to negotiate the end of the war, even if they don’t support conceding the surrender of territories Putin has sought to annex into Russia.
Meanwhile, Russian State TV hosts, who have largely backed Putin’s pro-war propaganda, have recently admitted that the war is not going well for Russia in several media appearances.
Ukraine Still Faces Obstacles Despite Progress
Even as Ukrainian troops make progress, they are facing a brutal winter as Russia continues launching strikes against civilian infrastructure across the country. Experts have said the infrastructure strikes are intended to knock down Ukrainian morale as they face a frigid winter, adding pressure to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to meet Putin at the negotiating table.
Furthermore, Russia may be planning to attempt a comeback in the spring. Retired four-star U.S. Army General Barry McCaffrey warned during an MSNBC appearance last week that Putin is planning to launch a new offensive against Ukraine and may pressure Russian ally Belarus to join the war.
Newsweek reached out to Russia and Ukraine’s defense ministries, as well as foreign policy analysts, for comment.
