James G. Stavridis is a retired U.S. Navy admiral who held numerous high-profile roles during his career, notably serving as the NATO supreme allied commander for Europe from 2009 to 2013. On Sunday, he was interviewed by businessman John Catsimatidis on his New York City-based radio show, “Cats Roundtable,” and discussed the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Stavridis predicted that the prolonged conflict between Ukrainian defenders and Russian invaders would remain at a stalemate at least throughout the winter, then “having a breakthrough moment.” While much has been made about Ukraine’s success in recent months, he warned that Russia maintains an edge in air combat, though the defenders’ ground superiority balances it out.
“On the Ukrainian side, the pressures from the West, in order to avoid further costs, is going to become significant,” he said. “When I put it all together, more war to go. Ukrainians win it on the ground. Russians winning in the skies.”
Despite this edge, Stavridis indicated that it is unlikely to matter much by the end of winter. He also stressed the need for both nations to continue pursuing negotiations to bring an end to the conflict, with the fatigue of Russian forces helping to facilitate.
“Unfortunately, the first chance we can get to a negotiation is going to be after the winter,” Stavridis said. “The Russians will be burned through and exhausted, losing so many men, so much equipment….Let’s all push for a negotiation sometime mid-2023.”
While Russia might hold the air advantage, Ukraine’s ground forces are set to receive a shot in the arm in the form of significant shipments of light tanks from the U.S., Germany and France.
Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Associated Press that these agile armored vehicles should give Ukrainian forces new strategic possibilities, especially when used in conjunction with long-range artillery and air strikes.
Ukraine is also set to receive a U.S.-made Patriot missile system from Germany, the most expensive system the country has received so far in military aid. A surface-to-air defense system, the “top-of-the-line” hardware could potentially give Ukrainian forces an edge against Russia’s air superiority.
“We never expected a Patriot system,” Vadym Prystaiko, the Ukrainian ambassador to the U.K., previously told Newsweek. “Seriously, this is a top-of-the-line anti-ballistic missile system, which was totally out of the question. I guess tanks, helicopters and even planes are much easier now.”
Newsweek reached out to foreign policy experts for comment.
