Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his “special military operation” on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, hoping for a quick victory. However, the war has exposed weaknesses within the Russian leader’s military, such as its difficulties maintaining well-trained troops.
These challenges—coupled with Ukraine’s spirited defense effort bolstered by Western military aid—has allowed Ukraine to retake thousands of miles of formerly occupied territory and turn the tide of the war in its favor.
As the war slowly approaches its first year with no signs of slowing down, Hodges predicted on Twitter that Ukraine is only months away from retaking control of Crimea.
Crimea is a region Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014 and has been controlled by Moscow ever since, though it remains a major point of contention between the two Eastern European nations. Ukrainian leaders have said they hope to reestablish control of Crimea in any potential negotiations to end the war.
Hodges, who served as the commanding general of the U.S. Army Europe, wrote on Twitter that he believes Crimea will be back in Ukraine’s hands by the end of August, citing widespread reporting that Putin’s troops lack motivation.
“Of course time is on Ukraine’s side. They have no manpower issues and their logistics situation gets better every week. Not one single Russian Soldier actually wants to be there and sanctions are hurting. Ukraine liberates Crimea by end of August,” he tweeted.
Matthew Schmidt, director of international affairs at the University of New Haven, told Newsweek on Sunday that while Hodges is being “very optimistic,” the Ukrainian military does have a chance to take Crimea, pointing to U.S. efforts to help Ukraine westernize their military.
Schmidt explained that optimism for Ukraine’s chances of retaking Crimea could be boosted by ongoing shifts in its military. The West is not providing its military with offensive weapons, and they are now being trained at large-unit levels. The Department of Defense announced last month plans to train Ukrainian troops on combined arms maneuvering, which Schmidt described as “what makes Western militaries so good.”
“If they learn to do combined arms maneuver at that scale they certainly could,” Schmidt said in a written statement. “They’d be able to move and bring fires down accurately simultaneously. They’d have better situational awareness with western Intel, and better morale.”
Still, he said a fight to recapture Crimea would be “brutal,” as Russia has built up strong defenses there. He added that due to the risk of failure, Crimea should be Ukraine’s last objective.
“It’s not just that they will take Crimea in August, but he’s saying they have to,” Schmidt said.
He warned that as the war drags on, Ukraine will run the risk of losing more troops, and if Ukrainian military leaders “make a wrong choice” and lose equipment, Western supplies could dry up due to opposition to Ukraine aide among some members of the House Republican majority.
Russia, Ukraine Eye Crimea Combat
Hodges’ remarks come amid reports that the Russia-Ukraine war could spill over into Crimea. Ukraine’s defense ministry spokesperson Andriy Chernyak told reporters last week that Ukraine believes Russia is transferring troops to northern Crimea, near where a land bridge connects the peninsula to Ukraine.
Chernyak added that the war-torn country is planning strikes against Russian targets in Crimea, Ukrinform reported.
“Considering that our foreign partners supply us with new types of weapons, the so-called land corridor to Crimea is certainly not safe. Ukraine will strike Russian positions throughout the occupied territory,” he said.
Russia, Ukraine Divided on Crimea’s Future
After more than 10 months of fighting, neither Russia nor Ukraine appear poised to kickstart negotiations to end the war. Both have spoken about what conditions would need to be met to reach a peace deal.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he plans to take control of Crimea, saying in an August address: “This is ours. And just as our society understands it, I want the occupiers to understand it, too. There will be no place for them on Ukrainian land… The occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border. To our border, the line of which has not changed. The invaders know it well.”
Russia, on the other hand, has said it would refuse to accept any peace deal that requires it to pull troops from what it views as its territories.
In addition to this requirement applying to Crimea, Moscow would also reject a deal mandating its withdrawal from Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sergey Lavrov said last month.
Newsweek reached out to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment.
Updated 1/9/23, 10:34 a.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Matthew Schmidt.
