The sentence, which is two months less than recommended by federal prosecutors, would represent the culmination of one of the most high-profile prosecutions to date of the trials related to investigations into the January 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol.
But it also comes at a decisive point in the future of American politics that Bannon—a key architect of the nationalist, populist undercurrent that drives today’s Republican Party—helped shape during and after his time in power.
While it’s likely he’ll get to see the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections in a few weeks, he’ll probably stand to miss the first months of the next Congress, as well as a number of other key moments that will likely be critical in shaping the political landscape ahead of the upcoming 2024 presidential cycle.
Here’s what Bannon stands to miss during his time behind bars.
Power Switch in Congress
Bannon has already played a significant role in shaping the political landscape for the 2022 midterm elections, both as a strategist and in his role as a leader of conservative messaging with his “War Room” podcast, where he regularly shares evidence-free assertions with his listeners of Democratic plans to “steal” elections.
Earlier this week, he told the New York Times the “Make America Great Again” movement was “100 times more prepared” this cycle, with an army of election activists at the ready in states around the country. Bannon has also pushed and endorsed a “precinct strategy” to lay claim over the Republican Party from the bottom-up, by encouraging like-minded conservatives to engage and run for otherwise dormant positions within their local and state political apparatus.
While he will likely have the opportunity to see if his grassroots efforts are successful, he won’t get to see them come to fruition—at least for a while—once the new Congress is sworn-in in January.
Possible Trump Testimony
At the close of the January 6 hearings, the Select Committee to Investigate Jan. 6 announced a subpoena of the former President compelling him—like Bannon was—to testify about his role in the day’s riots.
Bannon will go to prison for refusing to comply with his subpoena related to that day. And Trump could potentially feel similar pressure…should Democrats manage to hold control of Congress.
While Republicans are still likely favorites to take control of the House of Representatives, the Senate remains a toss-up, with a likely power shift depending on the fate of elections in a handful of closely-fought battleground states. Meanwhile, Democrats still have a chance to hold control of the House by a narrow majority, with FiveThirtyEight giving liberals a 20 percent chance of holding their ground.
January 6 Anniversary
Bannon will also likely be in prison as the country marks the second anniversary of January 6, where Bannon’s role in stoking the chaos will likely be a key focus.
Beyond going to prison for his refusal to testify about the day’s events, Bannon was seen as a key promoter of the day’s protests, who described the day as a “bloodless coup” on his podcast just two days before the event was scheduled to take place.
Last October, Media Matters for America, a liberal media watchdog, outlined numerous instances of Bannon hinting at a significant “behind the scenes role” in crafting Trump’s legal strategy to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
And in recent days, Bannon has suggested on his show that he has been involved in a national effort in state legislatures to pursue a constitutional convention, which would convene delegates from all 50 states to reconsider almost every facet of the United States Constitution, including elections.
The Upcoming Supreme Court Term
Observers have written of Bannon’s influence in helping shape a national narrative of resistance against the “deep state,” a depiction of an overbearing federal bureaucratic regime colloquially referred to as “the swamp” of Washington D.C. by politicians of both parties over the years.
Bannon’s influence on the Trump administration has been apparent in the rhetoric of some of the president’s appointees to the Supreme Court, with conservative justices in their opinions regularly expressing a reflex for deregulation apparently fueled by a popular disdain for the administrative state.
“For anyone who listens to Bannon’s podcasts—his faux valorization of popular sovereignty and trashing of expertise—the justices’ rhetoric should sound very familiar,“Austin Sarat, a professor of political science at Amherst College, wrote in The Hill earlier this year. “[…] the ascendency of the Gorsuch, Alito, Thomas agenda means that throughout the federal government ‘much of the process of issuing and enforcing regulations could grind to a halt—an outcome that would surely please Steve Bannon.’”
Their October calendar—including two key cases related to Bannon’s movement to challenge state-level election laws—likely won’t be concluded until Bannon is likely to be behind bars.
CPAC 2023
The biggest event on the conservative calendar each year is the Conservative Political Action Conference, the annual event in which top figures in the Republican Party and the conservative movement help shape the direction of the GOP on a national scale, shaping the popular rhetoric on the airwaves of national news organizations and defining the style of candidates running in state and local elections.
Bannon is likely to miss this year’s convention—at a critical time.
The upcoming conference—usually a hotbed for conservative activists—is likely to be significant amid speculation others within the party might be considering possible challenges to Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024.
Figures like former Vice President Mike Pence (who was absent from the last two conventions after its takeover by the Trump wing of the party) have already made their presences known in early voting states like Iowa and South Carolina, while figures like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and onetime UN Ambassador Nikki Haley have also begun building their brand ahead of the presidential calendar.
The biggest question mark, however, is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose speech at the conference earlier this year was seen as a key indicator of the former Congressman’s presidential ambitions.
“Governor DeSantis reinforces image as national leader in forcing illegal immigration to the top of the news,” Bannon wrote on the social media platform Gettr after his recent announcement sending undocumented immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard last month.
