Lee, a Republican ally of former President Donald Trump who received his endorsement, appears to be headed for a closer-than-expected election in Utah, long viewed as one of the most Republican-friendly states. Politics in Utah are driven by the state’s Mormon population, who embrace a more moderate brand of conservatism that has found itself at odds with the Republican Party increasingly in the image of Trump.
The former president’s continuing unpopularity in Utah is giving McMullin, a former Republican who turned against the party after it nominated Trump in 2016, a rare opportunity at defeating the GOP. McMullin is no stranger to Utah voters, having made an independent bid for president in 2016 and winning the support of about 21 percent of Utahns.
McMullin is seeking to unite Democratic and moderate Republican voters to send him to Washington and has made opposing extremism a key message of his campaign. He has attacked Lee for aligning himself with Trump, slamming him as a “sycophant” for the former president during a Salt Lake City rally in September, The Salt Lake Tribune reported.
If elected, he would join only two other senators who are independent from either political party—Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, both of whom caucus with Democrats.
Recent polling indicates McMullin may be narrowing the gap against Lee, however.
Two independent polls conducted by The Deseret News and the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics found Lee with a single-digit lead against McMullin.
The most recent of the two polls, conducted from October 3 to 6 among 773 likely voters, found Lee leading by 5 percentage points. The poll found Lee winning support from 41 percent of voters, while 37 percent of respondents said they were planning to vote for McMullin. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
The Deseret News/ Hinckley Institute of Politics’ September 3 to 21 poll, conducted among 786 likely voters, found an even narrower lead for Lee.
The poll found Lee winning by 2 percentage points, winning support from 36 percent of likely voters. McMullin won support from 34 percent of the poll’s respondents. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.43 percentage points.
Lee currently leads McMullin by six points across all recent polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate. Two months earlier on August 17, Lee led by an average of 9.1 points.
In a statement to Newsweek, Matt Lusty, campaign advisor for Lee, expressed confidence in the incumbent Utah senator’s polling lead.
“Sen. Lee knows how essential it is for Republicans to regain control of the Senate to push back the disastrous Biden agenda that is crushing Utah families with unchecked spending and runaway inflation—but let’s be clear, Mike Lee is leading this race,” he wrote. “Every reliable poll shows Senator Lee with a significant lead and our internal polling gives us even greater confidence in the strong support he has across the state.”
Lee Easily Won Past Elections
Polls are indicating that Lee is headed for his closest race. In 2016, he easily defeated Democrat Misty Snow by more than 40 points, winning more than 68 percent of the vote. In 2012, Lee received more than 61 percent of the vote, winning over Democrat Sam Granato by nearly 30 percentage points.
Some in the GOP are criticizing Mitt Romney, Utah’s other senator, for not weighing in on the race to help boost Lee’s reelection odds.
“Why Romney would vote, or fail to pursue, helping his colleague keep a Republican majority—which is what we’re drifting toward now, toward a majority—in Utah…it would be one of those great surprises if we lost,” former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich said in an interview on Fox News Wednesday night.
Newsweek reached out to the McMullin campaign for comment.
Update 10/18/2022, 1:10 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with a statement from the Lee campaign.
