Yugoslavia: Civil war could break out in Yugoslavia at any time. One eighth of Serbia, the largest of the country’s six republics, is taken up by the province of Kosovo dominated by ethnic Albanians who want independence from Belgrade. Serbs are also feuding with Croatia. Next year Slovenia likely will claim full sovereignty and call for Yugoslavia to evolve into a confederation of independent republics. If the central government balks, Slovenia may secede. That would put pressure on Croatia to leave the federation as well.
Czechoslovakia: In the Slovak capital, Bratislava, almost every day brings a new demonstration for independence. Last week Czech and Slovak negotiators discussed plans to grant Slovakia autonomy over its economic and political affairs, while preserving Prague’s authority over defense and foreign policy and the central bank. That is less than Slovak nationalists demand, and pressures could grow for a more radical separation.
Transylvania: Romania and Hungary have long disputed this chunk of territory in northwestern Romania. Last March fighting between ethnic Hungarians and Romanians in the city of Tirgu Mures left six dead and hundreds injured. Romania and Hungary will probably be able to contain the strife, but war might lead millions of ethnic Hungarians to leave Romania for Austria and beyond.
‘Free Konigsberg’: Kaliningrad, the former capital of East Prussia, was annexed by Stalin in 1945; it is now a Soviet naval base wedged between Poland and Lithuania. But in secret discussions earlier this year, German and Soviet officials explored the possibility of resettling millions of Soviet citizens of German origin in what would become the Free City of Konigsberg. With German investment, the city could become a freewheeling center of commerce–and, for Moscow, a valuable link to the wealthy West.
The Baltics: Eventual statehood for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia is all but certain. Far more productive economically than other Soviet repute" lies, the Baltic trio is well positioned to join the flow of world trade. Moscow may soon realize that the three are worth more to the Soviet Union as a free-standing link to Scandinavia’s economies than as unhappy vestiges of its empire.
New ‘Superregions’: Europeans are learning that they can have more in common with people in other states than with some of their own countrymen. The cities of Metz in France and Saarbrucken in Germany recently merged into a “Eurodistrict.” Old ideas may become new again. Pehr Gyllenhammar, chairman of Sweden’s Volvo, wants to step up trade links among northern Germany, Holland, the Nordic countries and the Baltic States–a notion reminiscent of the medieval Hanseatic League.
