After two electrifying semifinal games on New Year’s Eve, the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship Game is set: No. 1 Georgia (14-0, 7-7 ATS) will take on No. 3 TCU (13-1, 10-3-1 ATS) at 7:30 p.m. EST on Monday, Jan. 9th, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA.
The opening odds for this year’s title game were not kind to the Horned Frogs, who have been set as 13.5-point underdogs against the reigning national champs from Georgia.
Opening TCU vs. Georgia Odds
The odds above come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of 1:35 a.m. EST on Jan. 1. There was some variation among the major books, with Barstool and Caesars opening at Georgia -13.
UGA’s moneyline odds ranged from -500 to -600, while the shortest price for TCU was +380 and the longest was +430. Most oddsmakers had the game total at 61.5 but DraftKings opened a point higher at 62.5.
While Georgia has been among the favorites in the National Championship odds from the outset, TCU started the season as a +20000 longshot. A $10 wager at that price would net a $2,000 profit if it wins.
UGA survives Ohio State
For most of New Year’s Eve, it look as though the 2011 and 2012 Alabama Crimson Tide would hold onto the title as last school to repeat as National Champions; the defending-champion Georgia Bulldogs were on the ropes in their semifinal matchup against Ohio State. The Buckeyes led almost the entire game and were up two touchdowns (38-24) entering the fourth quarter. But Georgia QB Stetson Bennett manufactured two near-perfect touchdown drives in the final ten minutes, the second giving UGA a 42-41 lead with just 54 seconds to play.
Still holding onto two timeouts, Ohio State had plenty of time to respond and immediately marched into Bulldog territory. But after a C.J. Stroud scramble put the Buckeyes at the Georgia 31-yard-line with 19 seconds (and still two timeouts) remaining, the Bulldog defense held, forcing a 50-yard field-goal attempt by Noah Ruggles that was wide left from the outset.
Georgia’s come-from-behind 26-22 win at Missouri notwithstanding, this was the most-vulnerable the Bulldogs have looked this season, especially on defense. Until Ohio State lost star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., Georgia looked powerless to stop the Buckeye passing attack. Stroud finished with 348 yards on 23-34 passing (67.6 percent) with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
But the offense stepped up when the UGA defense uncharacteristically struggled. Bennett threw for nearly 400 yards (398) and an identical 67.6 completion percentage with three touchdowns and a pick, while Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards powered the run game to 135 yards on just 26 carries (5.2 YPC).
TCU runs by Michigan
In the first half of its Fiesta Bowl matchup against No. 2 Michigan, TCU undeniably benefitted from favorable officiating and good old fashioned luck. The Wolverines had a touchdown mysteriously overturned, fumbled on the goal line, and threw a pick-six, allowing the Frogs to open up a 21-6 lead at halftime, despite Michigan twice having the ball inside the TCU five-yard line.
When Michigan scored the first ten points of the second half, trimming the lead to 21-16, it looked as though TCU’s magic may have run out.
That’s when the Frogs truly earned their first-ever berth in the CFP National Championship. Heisman runner-up Max Duggan completed a 46-yard pass to star receiver Quentin Johnston on the next play from scrimmage and then running back Emari Demercado rushed the ball five straight times, culminating in a one-yard TD run that re-established TCU’s double-digit lead (28-16).
A second pick-six on Michigan’s next drive put the Frogs up 34-16 and appeared to seal the outcome with just 2:52 remaining in the third quarter. But Michigan showed championship mettle, cutting the lead to just a field goal (41-38) early in the fourth quarter thanks to three touchdown drives that spanned 171 yards on just eight plays.
Yet the combination of Duggan and Johnston responded once more, hooking up on a 76-yard TD pass on the next drive to give TCU a more-comfortable 48-38 lead. The TCU defense then forced two straight punts and the Frogs held on for a 51-45 win despite Michigan outgaining TCU 528 to 488 in the game.
While the Duggan-to-Johnston connection certainly had some huge moments, it was the ground game that really earned the victory. As a team, the Frogs piled up 263 rushing yards at 6.4 YPC, numbers unheard up against this Michigan front seven. And that was despite leading rusher Kendre Miller leaving in the first half with a knee injury. Dimercado, a senior who had played second-fiddle to Miller all year, finished with 150 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries.
Oddsmakers don’t like the matchup for TCU
The opening line here is a bit eye-popping after the relative performances from TCU and Georgia in the semis, but the logic is understandable. TCU’s offense needs to be able to run the ball to be effective. Apart from Johnston on the outside, Duggan doesn’t have a ton of weapons to work with down the field. Stroud was able to tear apart the UGA secondary while throwing to multiple future NFLers, but the Ohio State run game was stuck in the mud for much of the game. They finished with 119 yards on 32 carries for a minimal 3.7 YPC clip.
With Miller’s injury status unclear ahead of next week’s title game, Georgia’s top-ranked defense appears to matchup well against TCU. The Bulldogs should be able to contain the TCU ground game without devoting extra resources, allowing Kirby Smart and Will Muschamp to devote extra attention to Johnston, the only real downfield threat in TCU’s arsenal.
Don’t expect the college football odds for the title game to move much in either direction as January 9th approaches.
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