The Line: 49ers -5, Total: 50.5
Line movement and notes: The 49ers opened as 4-point favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and were bet up as high as -6 there. However, as of Friday, the line was down to -5 at the SuperBook and most other shops across town.
Trends that matter: The Eagles are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with the 49ers. The Eagles are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The 49ers are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against NFC East opponents.
The OVER is 8-2 in Philadelphia’s last 10 road games. The OVER is 10-3 in San Francisco’s last 13 home games against NFC East opponents.
Eagles fly high away from home: The Eagles have been road warriors under second-year head coach Chip Kelly, winning six of their last seven games away from home, including 30-27 over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2 as 3-point underdogs. While much has been made about cornerback Cary Williams’ comments last Sunday that Kelly pushes his players too hard in practice, accounting for the team’s slow starts, bettors who have been backing the Eagles can’t argue with the results.
The 2014 schedule actually sets up quite nicely for the team to equal or even surpass the 7-0 start in 2004, which would make bettors who wagered on OVER 9 wins very happy. Still, there is plenty of work to do for the Eagles to accomplish that feat, starting with this matchup against the 49ers.
The biggest concern for Philly early on is injuries, partly due to Kelly’s frenetic offensive pace and training regiment. The Eagles have already lost a few key members of the offensive line, with center Jason Kelce set to undergo sports hernia surgery, right tackle Allen Barbre out with a broken ankle and left guard Evan Mathis missing time with a knee injury. Kelly even protected starting running back LeSean McCoy off a career-high number of carries and yards last year by acquiring Darren Sproles from the Saints in the offseason, but both have already taken some punishment playing behind the weakened line.
“I don’t have a level of concern,” Kelly said. “I just ask who’s available, and let’s play.”
49ers need to find gold in second half: San Francisco has had no problems scoring early in games this season. It’s the finishes for the 49ers that have doomed them into losing two straight games since beating the Dallas Cowboys 28-17 in the season opener. Even in that game against the Cowboys, San Francisco did not score a point after the second quarter.
The 49ers have been outscored 31-0 in the final 15 minutes and 52-3 after halftime this season, yet they have been within a score in the fourth quarter of both losses. In the two games they were blanked after the intermission (the win over Dallas and a 23-14 road loss to the Cardinals last week), the total stayed UNDER. In the other game (a 28-20 home loss to the Bears in Week 2), the three points they did score in the second half were needed to push the total OVER the closing number of 47.
San Francisco has not played in a regular-season game with a total that closed as high as 50 since Week 12 of the 2012 season (at the Saints). The 49ers won that game, 31-21, and scored 17 second-half points, including a field goal in the fourth quarter to push the total OVER.
The Linemakers’ lean: Teams are game-planning against the run when they play Philly, and the 49ers will be no different, so Nick Foles will be forced to throw. On the other side, Philly’s D has given up 61 points over the last two weeks. Kenny White likes this game OVER and says it may get there by halftime.
Richie Baccellieri, meanwhile, says this point spread has been driven up by sharp guys who like to bet against teams with injuries along their offensive line – the Eagles fit that description. But the number still feels high, and while he concedes he may end up regretting it, Richie is taking Philly plus the points.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
